Detroit Red Wings (21-28-7, 49 points) @ Nashville Predators (33-20-5, 71 points)
February 12, 2019, 8:00 PM EST (Bridgestone Arena)
Moneyline: Detroit Red Wings +185/ Nashville Predators -225
Puckline: Nashville Predators -1.5
ESPN NHL Scores: Nashville Predators vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Detroit Red Wings limp into Nashville as the 30th ranked team after having lost their 3rd straight game. Nothing too surprising there, but the Wings are still 5-5 in their last 10.
Nashville is looking bounce back after losing two straight to the St. Louis Blues this weekend. Both games were one-goal affairs, but losing 3-in-a-row, won’t do any favors for the Preds while trying to win the Central Division.
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 5-5 in their last ten games, which is hard to believe, considering they have the worst goal differential in the Eastern Conference. At -30, after the 5-2 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks and 3-1 loss to the Bruins, has the team started to give up?
One man who, even when injured, has yet to give up is Dylan Larkin. Larkin leads the team in points and will be the leading point-man on the ice tonight (including the Predators). As I’ve mentioned in the past, Dylan Larkin’s performances are amazing, considering the low PDO that follows him.
The league average shot% is 9.7 and Larkin’s oiSH% (which is considering his linemates) is 7.8% — comparing that to Nikita Kucherov (84 points) or Patrick Kane (81 points) nets a loss of four or five percentage points in the category. Getting another legitimate linemate (or at least one that could reach the league average) would mean the Wings could offer a genuine threat on the first line.
The Predators are always quietly making waves and threatening to lead their respective conference in points. I say “quietly” because they have no clear-cut points leader and their goaltending is above average.
They win because the drop-off between lines and goaltenders isn’t far off. They can give their opponents a well-balanced serving of offense and defense no matter who hits the ice. With a CorsiFor% of 53.0%, the Predators have demonstrated that controlling the puck on the third and fourth line is just as important as the first line.
In dissecting the team’s 8th ranked PDO score, you can see the balance in offense and defense in the likes of Craig Smith and Filip Forsberg. Both boast a PDO score above 100, but Craig Smith does so with a below average oiSH% and a 93.1 oiSV%. Forsberg is the opposite story, with an oiSH% of 11.3% (nearly two percentage points higher than the league average).
Cover the Spread 365 NHL Betting Trends
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games
Detroit is 7-18 SU in its previous 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in five of Detroit’s last seven games
The total has gone UNDER in six of Nashville’s last eight games
Nashville is 1-5 ATS in its previous six games at home
Nashville is 15-8 SU in its past 23 games at home
Free NHL Predictions: Detroit Red Wings @ Nashville Predators
Cover the Spread 365
Nashville needs this and Detroit doesn’t. That’s the story in this game. Nashville is also spiraling (with a two-game losing streak), and if they want to own the Central, they can’t let it reach three games. On top of that, Nashville is 18-10-1 at home, and the Wings are 10-15-3 on the road.
Don’t forget; the Predators let the Wings steal one on January 4th. I can’t imagine they’ll allow that to happen again.