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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings Vs Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning (20-7-1, 41 points) @ Detroit Red Wings (12-12-3, 27 points)

December 4, 2018, 7:30 PM EST (Little Caesars Arena)

Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning -170/Detroit Red Wings +145

Puckline: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5

Over/Under: 6

Free NHL Pick: Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 8-2 in their last 10, including 4-1 on the road. With 3 W’s-in-a-row, the Bolts are looking for 4 as they wrap up their road trip in Detroit. The Red Wings are welcoming in another division leader and top-10 team in Little Caesars Arena. Will they find success against a Lightning team that has beaten them in 10 straight games?

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning is the league’s best team and you wouldn’t be laughed out of a room if you said that 2 months ago. Even with a few injuries (like the one to Andrei Vasilevskiy) the Bolts have been able to hold onto their league standing, striking fear into all who stand in their way.

Though the Lightning continues to win, Louis Domingue can be considered their biggest handicap, while taking over the starting goaltender role. His .900 SV% and 3.14 GAA is the worst in the league, but his performances have required the Lightning forwards to put forth their best efforts, night after night. With 18 skaters (having played at least 12 games) having a Corsi score above 50.0, the Lightning doesn’t have much to improve upon. Beyond that powerful statistic, is the 4th best Team on-ice shot percentage.

While Nikita Kucherov is an easy pick, at the start of every year, for MVP candidacy, Brayden Point and his 26.7% shooting percentage are putting the whole league on notice. His 37 points in 28 games are putting him on pace for a career year and 108 points. Even if the stock dipped to a league average of 10-12% shooting percentage, he’ll be able to flirt with 40 goals. That being said, there is nothing in the data suggesting he’s due for a drop (besides the LAW OF AVERAGES).

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings are coming into tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning have just faced 4 other teams in the top-10 and will face their 6th on Thursday (the Toronto Maple Leafs). During this period, the Red Wings have held a reasonable pace of .500. Their lack of talent, high-Corsi, and high PDO reflect a team who should be doing much worse.

The wins and competitiveness are coming from the goaltending. If the numbers since November weren’t enough, the Red Wings were able to hold the Colorado Avalanche (the hottest offense in the league) to 1 non-empty-net-goal (losing 2-0).

The Red Wings have displayed a new level of grit during the last couple of weeks, led by the Nephew of Todd Bertuzzi, Tyler. Tyler Bertuzzi has not only gotten himself into scuffs and tussles, but he’s also been able to be productive on the scoreboard. His 4 points in the last 5 games have helped Tyler become the 4th best scoring forward on the team. That being said, Bertuzzi is out for two games and the Wings will lose Mantha for 4-6 weeks.

Jimmy Howard, who is just outside of the top-10 in Save Percentage, will be between the pipes tonight.

Cover the Spread 365 NHL Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Detroit

Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games

Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit’s last 9 games

Free NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings

Cover the Spread 365

With another league leader coming into town, it doesn’t really matter how much better the Wings are playing (compared to October). The Lightning will be susceptible to goals, because of their shaky goaltender situation, but their team is loaded with talent from top to bottom. With their 2nd offensive line outpacing the Red Wing’s first scoring line, it’ll be tough to keep up and match up the lines perfectly. The injury to Mantha and loss of Bertuzzi won’t help. The last three games these two have played have ended with an average score of 4-1.33, in favor of the Lightning.

Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning -170 and take the Over (6)

Amazing...#RedWings tie it 5-5 with 7 seconds left...Mantha redirects it

Amazing....#RedWings cut lead to 5-4...Mantha tip at 8:36 of 3rd period....this game looked done and complete

44 seconds between Bertuzzi and Vanek goals #RedWings.....

Bertuzzi has looked in his first game back today and just scored his 14th goal...5-2 game Flyers lead #RedWings...and now Vanek on a 4-on-2 rush makes it 5-3 at 3:23...

Bernier coming in to replace Howard #RedWings

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“It was probably one of our better periods of the year to be honest.”

#Bolts break out in the 3rd period, break down the Habs in 3-0 shutout to cap perfect homestand. #MTLvsTBL

Jon Cooper said the big momentum swing came when Gourde scored right after Kucherov. "You could tell our bench got just a little bit taller and theirs got a little bit shorter. We kind of took advantage of that." #Bolts #MTLvsTBL

Vasilevskiy on if it means something to pass Bishop as franchise's all-time leader for shutouts: "Yeah, it's cool," he says nonchalantly. He then adds: "Bish is an unbelievable goalie, and I'm pretty proud to be No. 1." #Bolts #MTLvsTBL

Gourde on his scrap w/ Domi: "I don't mind those moments. I'm not going to sit here and say I love getting punched in the face. This is hockey, and (the net) is where I'm going to be standing. If they try to box me out and take me away, I'm going to try to stay there." #Bolts

Stamkos on Vasilevskiy's 2-straight shutouts: "He's just so competitive. He wants to make every single save. The last two games he has, and it's obviously fun to be part of that because that makes our job easier to go out and just have to get one." #Bolts #MTLvsTBL

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Matthew Klink
Matthew Klink
Matthew is the boy who never grew up. He made his attempts at growing up: graduating with major business degrees and an MBA. But he still managed to hold onto his die-hard fandom with sports, pro wrestling, cartoons, comics, and toys. Being a Michigan native, he's, unfortunately, a fan of the Detroit Lions, Tigers, and Pistons. He absolutely loves hockey, so he's still proud to be a Red Wings fan. Graduating from MSU, he also holds that school with some level of gratitude and affection. Read and listen to his pro-wrestling analysis on Brothers of Discussion.