Red Wings Vs Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning (20-7-1, 41 points) @ Detroit Red Wings (12-12-3, 27 points)
December 4, 2018, 7:30 PM EST (Little Caesars Arena)
Moneyline: Tampa Bay Lightning -170/Detroit Red Wings +145
Puckline: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5
Free NHL Pick: Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 8-2 in their last 10, including 4-1 on the road. With 3 W’s-in-a-row, the Bolts are looking for 4 as they wrap up their road trip in Detroit. The Red Wings are welcoming in another division leader and top-10 team in Little Caesars Arena. Will they find success against a Lightning team that has beaten them in 10 straight games?
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning is the league’s best team and you wouldn’t be laughed out of a room if you said that 2 months ago. Even with a few injuries (like the one to Andrei Vasilevskiy) the Bolts have been able to hold onto their league standing, striking fear into all who stand in their way.
Though the Lightning continues to win, Louis Domingue can be considered their biggest handicap, while taking over the starting goaltender role. His .900 SV% and 3.14 GAA is the worst in the league, but his performances have required the Lightning forwards to put forth their best efforts, night after night. With 18 skaters (having played at least 12 games) having a Corsi score above 50.0, the Lightning doesn’t have much to improve upon. Beyond that powerful statistic, is the 4th best Team on-ice shot percentage.
While Nikita Kucherov is an easy pick, at the start of every year, for MVP candidacy, Brayden Point and his 26.7% shooting percentage are putting the whole league on notice. His 37 points in 28 games are putting him on pace for a career year and 108 points. Even if the stock dipped to a league average of 10-12% shooting percentage, he’ll be able to flirt with 40 goals. That being said, there is nothing in the data suggesting he’s due for a drop (besides the LAW OF AVERAGES).
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings are coming into tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning have just faced 4 other teams in the top-10 and will face their 6th on Thursday (the Toronto Maple Leafs). During this period, the Red Wings have held a reasonable pace of .500. Their lack of talent, high-Corsi, and high PDO reflect a team who should be doing much worse.
The wins and competitiveness are coming from the goaltending. If the numbers since November weren’t enough, the Red Wings were able to hold the Colorado Avalanche (the hottest offense in the league) to 1 non-empty-net-goal (losing 2-0).
The Red Wings have displayed a new level of grit during the last couple of weeks, led by the Nephew of Todd Bertuzzi, Tyler. Tyler Bertuzzi has not only gotten himself into scuffs and tussles, but he’s also been able to be productive on the scoreboard. His 4 points in the last 5 games have helped Tyler become the 4th best scoring forward on the team. That being said, Bertuzzi is out for two games and the Wings will lose Mantha for 4-6 weeks.
Jimmy Howard, who is just outside of the top-10 in Save Percentage, will be between the pipes tonight.
Cover the Spread 365 NHL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit’s last 9 games
Free NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings
Cover the Spread 365
With another league leader coming into town, it doesn’t really matter how much better the Wings are playing (compared to October). The Lightning will be susceptible to goals, because of their shaky goaltender situation, but their team is loaded with talent from top to bottom. With their 2nd offensive line outpacing the Red Wing’s first scoring line, it’ll be tough to keep up and match up the lines perfectly. The injury to Mantha and loss of Bertuzzi won’t help. The last three games these two have played have ended with an average score of 4-1.33, in favor of the Lightning.