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Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Khabib Nurmagomedov (26-0) vs. Conor McGregor (21-3)

UFC 229 Lightweight Title Fight: Saturday, October 26, 2018 (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Lines and Odds: Nurmagomedov -165–Over 2.5 (+120)/Under 2.5 (-140)



The UFC Lightweight Title is up for grabs, as Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor square off for the belt in a fight that has been tagged as the most hyped match-up in UFC history. With two completely contrasting styles, the outcome will likely be decided by where the fight takes place. Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov defeated late replacement Al Iaquinta handily with a unanimous decision at UFC 223 to win the vacant UFC Lightweight Championship. Nurmagomedov dominated Iaquinta on the ground as expected, and landed 172 strikes through 5 rounds, which was more than “Raging Al” attempted throughout the entire fight. With the win, it put him in place for a fight that had been in the making for some time, as Nurmagomedov has controlled the competition thus far with wins over big names such as: Rafael Dos Anjos, Michael Johnson, and Edson Barboza. Nurmagomedov has the clear advantage in his cardio and wrestling, and will look to use that to smother McGregor like he did Barboza and Iaquinta. While not having the best stand up skills, Khabib has shown to have a tough chin, and tends to test himself on the feet despite having superior ground game. He does have two KO victories to his name against Darrell Horcher and Thiago Tavares, as well as 2 submission wins. Nurmagomedov also has a 70.1% significant strike defense, so he tends to avoid the heavy shots. Although Khabib is superior with his wrestling, he was only 6 of 15 on take-down attempts in his last fight against Iaquinta and 4 of 13 against Barbosa. Those numbers are slightly inflated because he uses the take-down as a disguise to grapple, but it also shows that the ability for the fight to have space, and thus is advantageous for McGregor. Conor “The Notorious” McGregor will be looking to reacquaint himself as the Lightweight champion at UFC 229. He last fought in the UFC on November 12, 2016 against Eddie Alvarez, beating him by TKO in the 2nd round. McGregor has been an electric figure since coming into the UFC, and has an impressive resume of wins against Max Holloway, Jose Aldo, Dustin Poirier, and the aforementioned Nate Diaz. His last professional fight was the highly anticipated boxing match against Floyd Mayweather in August of 2017, where he was defeated in the 10th round by TKO. McGregor will have a huge stylistic advantage standing, having not only one punch knockout power, but also the ability to show different angles and stances, and the ability to control range on the feet. His arrival into the UFC was one of the most memorable runs of any athlete in combat sports, as he won his first 7 fights, with 6 out of those 7 coming by way of highlight reel knock outs. His most memorable KO came against Jose Aldo is just 13 seconds of the first round, and all of his finishes in the UFC have come before the 3rd round bell has had a chance to ring. McGregor will come in with a 4 inch reach advantage, and will look to utilize range to keep Khabib at bay. Nurmagomedov has been more than willing to stand in the pocket, and was hurt and wobbled by Johnson early in their fight. McGregor’s ground game has always been perceived as his weakest skill, as evidenced by his submission loss to Diaz. McGregor’s cardio will always be in question, as he faded hard against Diaz in their first clash, as well as slowing down late against Mayweather. The fact that he hasn’t fought in 2 years adds to notion that the longer this fight play out, the better it is for Nurmagomedov. Cover The Spread 365 MMA Betting Trends Nurmagomedov

10-0 in his last 10 UFC fights

60% of his fights in the UFC have went to a decision

9 out of his 10 fights have made it to the 2nd round


9-1 in his last 10 UFC fights

70% of his fights have ended by KO

8 out of his last 10 UFC fights did NOT go the distance


McGregor is levels above Khabib in the striking department, and the same goes for Nurmagomedov on the ground. Since it is a matter of where the fight takes place, I like the Under 2.5 or a Fight Does Not Start Round 3 prop bet for a couple of reasons. McGregor often ends the fight early with his striking accuracy and power, so if he connects on the chin, the fight will be over. McGregor has also shown that he will fade, so if the fight does get past round 2, Khabib will turn up the pressure and hound McGregor until he either submits him or KO’s him with ground strikes. Either way that it plays out, the fight won’t go to a decision.

McGregor vs. Nurmagomedov Under 2.5