Wait for your MLB Lineup Before Placing your Sports Bet

Don’t rush your MLB Sports Bet until the lineup is posted

Too often we find ourselves making decisions before we analyze a situation. This is often the case in life, but it also becomes an issue in our betting decisions as well. As much as you might think one player sitting out of the lineup isn’t a big deal, you never know who it will be and what kind of an impact they have been making on the team. It is very rare for a player to play all 162 games. Since 2015, a total of seven players have played every game of the MLB regular season.

The sports betting market is often swayed mainly because a key player is out of the lineup to rest, but there are a lot more factors that go into a line being moved. A few include if the player is on a hot streak, which position they play, as well as the teammates they have surrounding them. These are all reasons to keep an eye on the lineup, which is released hours before the first pitch, so stay patient!

One of the more important positions in baseball is the catcher. They have the biggest impact on both the offensive and defensive sides of the game. This is mainly because they must have good communication with the pitcher to keep the game under control and they also need to be reliable hitters. So, when a player like Yadier Molina or Buster Posey sit out a game it is certain to swing the line more than usual.

Some players mean more to a team than others and no stat confirms this more than Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For example, in a recent study, it showed that when Paul Goldschmidt was listed to rest the line changed by almost four percent. The Diamondbacks went from favorites at -105 to underdogs at +111. In the same study, star players like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Jose Altuve, who have just as much status as Goldschmidt, moved the line by less than two percent.

Goldschmidt has a 5.5 WAR, which is good for fourth in the MLB. The next best position player on the Diamondbacks is David Peralta, who is tied for 112th at 2.19 WAR. The difference is staggering and shows exactly why the change in the line is altered so much. So, when you think about it, a Paul Goldschmidt-less Diamondbacks team looks far worse than a Kris Bryant-less Cubs team.

It takes a big sample size for odds makers to sway a line when a player who is on a hot streak, so it is often not seen. However, there are some cases where a team must rely heavily on said player and can crash without them. One of those players include Giancarlo Stanton, who has arguably been one of the hottest hitters since the All-Star break. Not surprising when you see the change in the line of one game go from -133 to -120 (-2.53%) in his absence. Stanton has been one of the only players on the Marlins to impact the game as of late, so if he were to be absent the team would have a rough time coming up with consistent run production.

While it’s not common for odds makers to make a big change to the line because of a single player resting it’s still important to be patient to see if impact players will be playing or not. It could change your mind. This is our money after all.


Steven Melendez

Author: Steven Melendez

Steven doesn't place bets just because a game is on TV or involves high profile teams. He looks for value and more importantly looks for opportunities, when other don' see one. If you are working full-time, going to school, have a family, or have other interests then you can't possibly put in the time required to win at sports-betting, then Steven is the one person to guide you through the jungle of the sports world. ff

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