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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City Thunder (25-15) at San Antonio Spurs (24-18)

NBA Regular Season: January 10, 2019 @ 9:30 PM EST (AT&T Center)

Line and Odds: Thunder -1.5 — Over/Under: 225

Free NBA Pick San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Two of the NBA’s premier teams face off on Thursday in what should be an exciting matchup between the Thunder and Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs

NBA fans who expected the Spurs to take a significant step back this season have yet to be vindicated as this season’s squad is on pace to tie its 47-35 record from last year. San Antonio has been a top five team by offensive rating so far this season, and the Spurs run an offense that is largely focused on a mid-range game (18.7% of the Spurs’ points have come from mid-range shots this season — good for the highest percentage in the league) with catch and shoot threes and careful ball movement (San Antonio owns the best turnover rate in the NBA). The Spurs don’t make the flashiest impact on defense as they rank at or near the bottom of the league in steals and blocks per game, but San Antonio boasts an effective defense that keeps teams out of the paint while limiting fast breaks and free throws and capably defending against threes. Overall, this is a fairly well rounded, technically sound Spurs team that has posted the eighth best net rating in the league despite playing with what some consider to be an antiquated offensive system.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have powered their way to the third best record in the Western Conference on the back of their dominant defense. Nearly every player on this Oklahoma City team has improved on defense since last season, and roster changes haven’t hurt them on the defensive side of the ball either. As a result, the Thunder lead the league in defensive rating and steals while suffocating teams behind the arc. The Thunder defense is just mediocre defending in the paint though, which could be important in this game. On offense, the Thunder tend to stay away from threes (relative to the rest of the league) and make most of their impact in the paint — Oklahoma City ranks fifth in the league in shots in the paint per game — while getting to the foul line frequently and collecting an impressive 12.6 offensive rebounds per game.

Cover the Spread 365 Trends

Oklahoma City Thunder

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games

Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games on the road

San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio’s last 10 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio’s last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City

Free NBA Pick Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

These teams match up well with each other; the Thunder’s ability to score in the paint and force turnovers will likely be minimized by San Antonio’s impressive paint defense and careful brand of basketball while the Spurs’ strong mid-range game should be stunted by the Thunder’s suffocating defense. The Thunder have scored at least 112 points in half of their games this season while the Spurs have eclipsed 112 in just 40% of theirs, so the score appears unlikely to go over 224 in what should be a defensive showcase.

Pick: Under 225 (-123)

Sam Chinitz
Sam Chinitz
Sam has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he's combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. He loves sports and loves writing about them. Using not just statistics and records, he uses common sense and conventional thinking. The opposite of what most bettors rely on--impulse wagering and following the norm. His articles are well-thought-out and well-researched.
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