UFC 229 Khabib vs McGregor: Odds, Predictions and Insights on the Fight
You can probably feel it growing bigger. That buzz. Those jitters. The chatter. The energy building up for the bombastic bout of a brawl tonight’s fight between Connor “The Notorious” McGregor and Khabib “The Eagle” Numagomedov will most certainly be. Although the McGregor name certainly carries clout with a background in flashiness and plenty of memorable victories, Khabib’s own relatively humble history should not be overlooked. Some of us will watch tonight to see how these stories collide and play out. Some of us will watch for that thrill of violence with a slight sprinkle of respect between two men placed in a ring where anything can happen. And then there are some of us that will watch for the odds and the dream of cashing out big time on a Saturday night like no other. That’s where we come in to help!
We’re here to help guide you and assist in having a steel-coated gut feeling that you most definitely took the right picks. Before we delve into our spin on where some value can be found, lets take a brief look at all the various ways you can play the fight.
We’ll keep it simple to start. Below you will find the various lines associated with the method of victory:
Conor by TKO/KO/DQ +150
Conor by Submission +2000
Conor by Decision +1100
Khabib by TKO/KO/DQ +300
Khabib by Submission +250
Khabib by Decision +375
So these are some of the options on the menu for the fight but we’re all wondering what to order, right? It’s a difficult choice and one could envision tonight going a million various ways. These guys come in with huge differences but at the top of the game in their selective skills. They’re strengths are razor sharp but their weaknesses are also glaring which could lead to this being a quick knockout punch for Conor or a rapid submission by Khabib.
However, you have to consider the preparation and endless hours of studying and strategization that could also throw a wrench into the fight. They will be extremely aware of what the other is trying to do and this could lead the fight to drag out only to take a turn at the end that noone saw coming. Khabib’s usual fighting style could very well tire out an overly excited McGregor who’s looking for that knock out strike and lead to Khabib taking advantage of Conor running on empty gas. A late knockout strike from Khabib is one possibility to consider for sure.
The odds seem to believe that Conor’s best shot at winning is from a TKO which provides 1.5x value while Khabib’s is through a submission that’d return 2x your initial investment. But if you’re feeling crazy and like the long shots then a 20x return for a Conor submission has to have your mouth salivating. Or what about the highly unusual, unlikely, indecisive draw. However controversial it might be to root for nobody to win, no one can argue with a payout that’s SIXTY SIX times your initial bet. You might be taking crap from your bodies the whole night but at the end of the day you’ll be the one laughing when those fat stacks of mullah arrive as a result from your pick of a draw.
Let’s keep moving along though and look at first the odds on total rounds and then for predicting who wins and in what round.
So for total rounds the lines are as follows:
Over 2.5 -110
Under 2.5 -130
Seems pretty close to me and honestly not much value or fun to play around with. Therefore we’ll save you the time, skip the analysis and jump right into more of the juicy stuff with McGregor’s round by round odds.
McGregor in Round 1 +400
McGregor in Round 2 +600
McGregor in Round 3 +1200
McGregor in Round 4 +2000
McGregor in Round 5 +3300
Obviously it’s clear that Vegas believes McGregor poses the biggest threat to win in the first round but that’s no fun for anyone. If you want my opinion I’d say to roll the dice a little and take McGregor in round 4. This poses excellent value at 20x your bet and isn’t as unlikely as everyone seems to believe. Remember these fighters are going to be cautious about protecting their reputations, adapting to each other throughout and providing some entertainment value to the UFC and all their fans along the way if possible. By round 4 however Conor will be impatient and want to finish Khabib once and for all with a flurry of strikes culminating in that final knockout punch.
Conor Pick: Round 4 +2000 and TKO +150
That’s just one storyline though.
Now let’s transport you into an alternate universe and reality where Khabib pulls off the upset and wins. The round by round odds for this are:
Khabib in Round 1 +500
Khabib in Round 2 +600
Khabib in Round 3 +700
Khabib in Round 4 +950
Khabib in Round 5 +1200
The numbers seem to be telling us that he also stands most likely to win in that initial round. There’s also a lot less variability in the odds throughout the fight compared to McGregor’s more rapid increase in odds as the fight goes longer. You might be tempted to take the easy route and bet on Khabib to take it in round 1 or 2 but remember that you’d also be sacrificing that intangible satisfaction of more time to watch this fantastic fight play out. It’s much more fun to imagine an actioned pack back and forth fight teetering between the two with splashes of memorable moments round by round. That’s why I’d say you should bet with the Hollywood story in mind and lean more towards a Khabib victory in that last round after sustaining an entire lifetime’s worth of strikes from McGregor. Just picture a tattered and bloodied Khabib looking like a warrior staggering around the floor in that final round. On the outside it looks like he’s had way too much to handle and has served as Conor’s toy punching bag but inside is a different story. In that last round there’s a fiery storm lit in Khabib’s stomach. There’s that animalistic feeling of an eagle soaring around waiting for that precious moment to make McGregor his prey for the night. Then BAM!!! Khabib jumps into action and takes an exhausted McGregor to the ground, finishing him off by submission as the crowd roars with excitement. Now that is the bet I’d wanna take and would like to see for the night if Khabib is going to win this.
Khabib pick: Round 5 +1200 Submission +250
So we’ve laid out the odds for you in plain sight. Given you a few creative scenarios on how we see the fight going. Now what??? It’s time to man up and choose the storyline YOU believe in most. At the end of the day the odds are numbers trying to attach measure to unpredictable event. It’s up to you to be creative and write your own story of how you think the fight will play out. Once you’ve got that story (or stories), attach some odds back to it in order to construct a mix of bets that will help keep you intrigued throughout the night. Remember it’s all for entertainment purposes and to make sure this is an event you fully soak up and can remember for the rest of your life.